If a home win for Chelsea against Barcelona seemed improbable last week, getting a result at Camp Nou is surely impossible. Before that defeat to Real Madrid in their last game, Barcelona had won eleven consecutive games at home. With Chelsea’s poor away record in the Champions League this season and Barcelona’s utter domination of world football in the last four years, it is almost laughable to envisage a scenario that does not end in a Barcelona triumph. But surely there is a case to be made that provided certain — albeit inconceivable — factors align, Chelsea may come away from the second leg game with little more than just an ego-boosting first leg win.

Pep Guardiola has tinkered with his Barcelona side a lot recently, sometimes even playing three at the back with a midfielder in Javier Mascherano or Sergio Busquets occupying a centre back role. He has done this partly to deal with injuries but also, it seems, to try and challenge a team that has shown a relative lack of motivation this season. That is quite understandable for a team that has won two out of the last three Champions League titles and the last three La Liga titles in grand style. They are now easily one of the best teams of all time, but for all their pretty play this season, there is a carelessness and complacency that has crept into their game. This has been particularly visible in their last two games, where they have created chances aplenty but seem lackadaisical about putting them away. Even though they are still the best team in the world, they lack the cutting edge and the desire that they showed in previous seasons and Chelsea will need to exploit that to the fullest. This might be the last chance for some of their ageing key Chelsea players like Frank Lampard and John Terry to win the Champions League and they need, more than anything, to show that they want it more than Barcelona do.

Despite a 1-0 deficit and Pep Guardiola’s comments to the contrary, Barcelona is still favorites to go through, but minor cracks are beginning to show in the armour of what is still a colossal juggernaut. They have now lost two games in a row, to Real Madrid and a Chelsea side that through a combination of stoic defending and a massive amount on luck, were able to keep the Barcelona onslaught at bay. That clean sheet at home will be just as crucial as Didier Drogba’s 45th minute goal to any hopes they might have of progressing to the final. A goal for Chelsea at Camp Nou will mean the Catalans will have to score at least three goals to progress, a fact that is surely not lost on either team. Chelsea have scored first in all their Champions League ties this season, and they will need that run to continue.  It is vital that they score that first goal and also keep Barcelona out for as long as possible to give themselves a realistic chance of progressing. Concede early and the tie is practically lost, but prevent the home side from scoring for long enough and sooner or later the fans will get nervous, which might translate to nervous play on the pitch by the Spanish giants.

Another important factor could be fatigue. Both teams had very important games at the weekend, but while Chelsea were able to rest key players with Ivanovic, Cole, Lampard, Ramires, Meireles, Mikel and Mata all sitting out, the only changes Guardiola was able to make for El Clasico was to place the misfiring Sanchez and Fabregas on the bench beside him. If Barcelona’s players are tired, it could mean that they might not be able to sustain as high a tempo as they want, and might not be able to make as many off the ball runs as they normally do – factors which are key to their style of play. Chelsea’s ability on the other hand, to rest key players in their full back and midfield positions could mean they are fresh and ready to work even harder on Tuesday. This is important, as away from home they do not have the crowd on their side, and will need every ounce of concentration and hard work they can muster. The game can easily be lost by silly decision making, particularly in the 18-yard box, and their extra rest might help prevent that.

Someone that has made many a player look foolish in that penalty area is Lionel Messi, the most dangerous man on the field, and someone that Chelsea will have to try and shackle at the Nou Camp. That is obviously easier said than done, because this is a player who at 24 should already be in every reasonable list of the best players of all time. He already has 63 goals and a Champions League record 14 goals this season, and will be looking to add at least one more on Tuesday night. However, he is also on a two game goal drought, which is apocalyptic by his standards. In the first leg Chelsea was able to restrict him to just long shots which they blocked effectively. He looked somewhat frustrated, constantly dropping deep to get the ball and trying to set up his teammates who consistently fluffed their lines in front of goal. That being said, he has had two average games in a row, including that first leg against Chelsea, and they will need him to have an improbable third to have any hope at all of playing at the Allianz Arena next month.

Chelsea will also need to show the same sort of grit and steely resolve that they displayed in the first leg in order to come away from the Camp Nou with any sort of result. They will need to play to their strengths, exploiting their height and strength advantage in dead ball situations. Branislav Ivanovic’s long throws seemed to bother Barcelona a lot in the first leg, and that is a weapon they should look to use more away from home. Chances will be few and far between, which means they will also need their key players to turn up. John Terry and Frank Lampard were immense, but it was Didier Drogba that stood out in the first leg, with his hold up play and high work rate pivotal to victory at Stamford Bridge. Say what you will about his theatrics, but all that rolling around on the floor was crucial in stemming Barcelona’s flow, disrupting their rhythm and buying his teammates a few seconds of rest from chasing the black-clad shadows from Catalonia. Without his power and playacting, Chelsea could struggle. Enter Fernando Torres, who will undoubtedly be his replacement, to provide a different sort of threat. He will add pace to the counterattack and even though he has had a lacklustre season, while he was at Spain with Atletico Madrid he scored seven goals in five different matches against Barcelona. Chelsea will be content with just one of those goals on Tuesday night.

Finally and most importantly, Chelsea will need some of the luck that has eluded them in previous Champions League ties with Barcelona. The 2009 semi-final in particular still hurts them, and they will be looking to put that particular ghost to bed once and for all. They will need to be unified, to display a level of unselfishness, sense of purpose, organisation, belief and urgency that has been lacking from their play all season. Then, and only then, will they have any chance of completing the good work they started in the first leg and booking that May 19th ticket to Munich.

1. Are Dortmund even better this season?

After a sublime performance against HSV on Friday night, the question has to be asked. Dortmund’s quick passing and interchange left HSV bewildered. The return of Kagawa has given fresh verve to Dortmund’s attack. In particular, the sickeningly talented 19 year old Mario Götze seems to love playing with Kagawa and the two combine brilliantly. New signing Gündo?an has also slotted nicely into the Nuri Sahin shaped hole in the midfield. With Barrios and Subotic still to come back from injury, and Ivan Perisic on the bench, there are even more reasons to be optimistic. However, it remains to be seen whether Dortmund can play that well after a tough midweek Champions League tie.

2. Is Patrick Helmes the man to solve Wolfsburg’s goalscoring issues?

Helmes fired home twice in Wolfsburg’s 3-0 victory away to Cologne. Helmes had an impressive strike rate at Bayer Leverkusen, but struggled to make an impact in his first 6 months after signing for Wolfsburg last January. Unfortunately for Helmes, Wolfsburg manager Felix Magath doesn’t seem to rate him. Instead, Magath is desperate to sign Papiss Cisse. Wolfsburg’s problem is that Magath doesn’t want to pay Freiburg’s €15 million asking price. Either Magath needs to stump up the cash soon, or find himself relying to Helmes.

3. Do Schalke already face problems?

Schalke were pretty poor in their 3-0 defeat away to Stuttgart. Admittedly, Stuttgart isn’t an easy place to get a result, but the game exposed a number of issues with Rangnick’s team. Rangnick favours a high tempo fluid passing game. However, to play that kind of style, Schalke need a central creative figure, which was sadly lacking on Saturday. Baumjohann doesn’t seem capable of providing the necessary creativity. Jan Moravek, who played quite well on loan to Kaiserslautern last season, is still young and yet to be given a real chance in the Schalke team. The obvious option is Jurado, who excelled in spells last season, but Rangnick doesn’t think he works hard enough to fit into the Schalke system. However, without him, Schalke’s play looked laboured.

Perhaps more worryingly, Schalke’s defence also looked shaky against Stuttgart. Rangnick has placed his faith in young defender Papadopoulos, but at only 19 he may not be ready to play week in week out. In addition, Rangnick favours new signing Marco Höger at right-back, but Schalke miss the dynamism provided by Uchida.

4. Is Thomas Tuchel the next Jürgen Klopp?

To a certain extent, the comparison is lazily drawn because both got their first taste of managerial experience at Mainz. However, there are other similarities. Both are representative of the young breed of German coaches currently plying their trade in the Bundesliga. Klopp’s Dortmund won last year’s title with high tempo pressing and passing, much like Tuchel’s Mainz team. Tuchel has done a remarkable job firstly keeping little Mainz in the division and then taking them to fifth place last season. Mainz suffered the ignominy of going out of Europe after their first tie, losing on penalties to Gaz Metan Medias. But Tuchel cannot be blamed for the profligacy of his players, both during the game and the shoot-out.

Despite losing several key players, Tuchel has rebuilt well. Even after playing 120 minutes on Thursday, Mainz still played a remarkably high-intensity pressing game on Sunday. Bayer Leverkusen just couldn’t live with it. Constantly harassed and harried by Tuchel’s men, Leverkusen often found themselves under pressure and going backwards. Indeed, the first goal, when Sami Allagui profited from a horrendous error by Leverkusen’s goalkeeper Fabian Giefer, only happened because of the striker’s pressing.

Mainz look more than capable of a mid-table finish once again. After impressing on a limited budget by instilling a well thought-out systm into his players, buying well and improving young players, many bigger clubs will wonder if he could do so well for them too.

5. Are Bayern already in crisis?

No. Not yet anyway. Despite being overwhelming favourites for the league, Bayern crumbled against a very well organised Borussia Mönchengladbach team, who, in should be noted, played very well. Bayern once again looked lethargic and one-dimensional. The main tactic was: get it out wide and hope Robben or Ribery does something good. The problem was that they can be stifled by a well organised team. After Toni Kroos made way for Ribery, Bayern lost the only player who was making the team flow and the only player who seemed interested in trying something different.

Even worse, the revamped defence produced a fatal blunder. After a defence mix-up, Neuer came charging out of his goal, didn’t get the ball and allowed De Camargo to nod home into an empty net. Neuer, who was a controversial signing for some of Bayern’s ultras, needs to adapt to having very little to do for much of the game, while pulling off the one brilliant save when required. As Neuer gets more playing time with his new defence, mix-ups like that one should become rarer, but Neuer can’t afford many bad errors without incurring the simmering anger of certain Bayern fans.

Photo by cardanlight

On September 11th last year, I sat in the AWD Arena in Hannover and watched an enthralling 2-2 draw between Hannover and Bayer Leverkusen. After two wins from their opening two games, there was a sense of confidence amongst the swelled ranks of Hannover fans.

Early on, their confidence seemed well place. Hannover took the lead after a bad error by Hyypia allowed Ya Konan a chance. As is so often, the Ivorian slotted home coolly. Following a red card for Hannover’s Emanuel Pogatetz, die Roten (‘the reds’) produced a gritty performance and managed to double their lead when Abdellaoue nodded in from a set piece. However, down to 10 men and up against a quality outfit, Hannover eventually succumbed, when Patrick Helmes hammered in a last minute equaliser from a free-kick. The game made headlines all over Germany, and the world.

Michael Ballack, still officially Germany captain at that point, suffered an injury which kept him out for over 4 months. The news shocked many German football fans and ruined any chance Ballack had of returning to the national team. No one paid much attention to Hannover. Sure, Hannover had played well and 7 points from their opening 3 games was impressive, but Hannover weren’t going to achieve much this season. At best, they’d avoid relegation for another season with a mid-table finish.

Or so we thought.

Yet, come the end of the season, little Hannover were fighting Bayern for the final Champions League spot. Third place seemed like a realistic goal for Hannover after they played brilliantly in 3-1 home victory against Bayern on match day 25, which left the Bavarians in fifth trailing Hannover by 5 points. Eventually, Bayern wrestled third place from Hannover, leaving Hannover to make do with fourth place and a Europa League spot. Despite being largely ignored by much of the media, this was a remarkable achievement for a team of limited resources which finished the previous season 15th and only avoided the relegation play-off by two points.

So, how did they do it? Well, firstly, the 15th place finish was perhaps a bit misleading. The team had endured a tumultuous and distressing season, after Hannover and Germany goalkeeper Robert Enke’s tragic suicide. The psychological impact of his death seemed to leave the players, fans and management in a state of shock and made it even harder for an already struggling team to turn their season around. Adding to their problems, Hannover went through 3 managers. Eventually, former Schalke manager Mirko Slomka was appointed and, after an initially poor start, managed to do just enough to survive.

Slomka then had a chance to work with his team over the summer to get the best out of his players. He adopted a relatively direct counter-attacking style, reliant on finding the two strikers quickly. And in Didier Ya Konan (14 goals in 28 appearances) and Mohammed Abdellaoue (10 goals in 26 games) he had a fantastic strike partnership, who got him goals and complimented each other very well. Ya Konan, in particular, was superb. The stocky Ivorian had the pace to trouble teams when balls were played in behind the defence, the ability and strength to hold the ball up, and the coolness to finish accurately. Slomka also managed to get the best from many of his players. Most notably, Slomka coaxed excellent performances from the tough-tackling Portuguese midfielder Sergio Pinto, who provided many excellent passes up to the front players. Even talented former Germany international Jan Schlaudraff, who had previously under-achieved at the AWD Arena, began to produce good performances. In addition, Slomka massively improved the defence, by improving the organisation and adding Pogatetz to the heart of the defence. In 2009/10, Hannover conceded a staggeringly awful 67 goals, but last season Hannover conceded a far more respectable 45 goals.

Of course, there is a danger when playing on the break that you become one dimensional and are unable to cope when a team sits back against you. Slomka addressed this as well, and in the second half of the season Hannover began to play a bit more football. Alongside Pinto, the likes of Rausch, Schmiedebach and a resurgent Schlaudraff played well in midfield, as Hannover held more possession. This meant that Hannover were no longer so reliant on counter-attacks to break down the opposition.

A lot of credit has to go to Jörg Schmadtke, Hannover’s Sporting Director, who signed Ya Konan, Abdellaoue, Pogatetz, and the young talented goalkeeper Ron Robert Zieler, on a very small budget. Schmadtke and Slomka have often disagreed publically and have questioned each other’s ability’s at times, but both men have played their part in what has been a remarkable rise.

The ironic thing about Hannover’s rise is that it has been done on a small budget. Martin Kind, the Hannover President, has long argued against the ‘50+1 rule’, which prevents investors from owning 50% or more of any Bundesliga club. 50% + 1 of the shares must be owned by the club, and therefore the members, and control of the club must also be retained by the members. There are two exceptions to this. Wolfsburg are wholly owned by Volkswagen and Bayer Leverkusen by Bayer. Both clubs were originally founded as works teams formed at the companies’ factories and the league, as a result, has allowed Bayer and Wolfsburg to own their respective clubs.  After he failed in his attempt to alter the rules through the leagues structures, Kind has filed a lawsuit against the league at the Permanent Court of Arbitration. Kind argues that giving exceptions to Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen is unfair. He has also stated that “The rule means the loss of many Bundesliga clubs’ ability to compete nationally and internationally. And in some ways it prevents further development of German football, especially those clubs who play in the lower half of the Bundesliga, as they do not have enough financial resources.” Of course, Kind will be delighted that his club proved him wrong last season.

As for next season, Hannover can look forward to playing in the Europa League with a squad, which, on paper at least, looks stronger than last season. Hannover have held on to all their key players so far, including star striker Ya Konan. Even German international left back Christian Schulz, who looked set to join Wolfsburg, eventually committed to the club and extended his contract. Hannover will also hope to see more of last summer’s signing Carlitos, who missed basically the whole season through injury. The creative midfielder should provide more depth and invention to Hannover’s midfield next season. Hannover have also made some interesting signings. German international left wing-back or left midfielder Christian Pander has joined from Schalke. If Hannover can keep him fit, and that’s a very big if, he could prove a very astute signing. In addition, Norwegian international holding midfielder Henning Hauger and Polish international striker Artur Sobiech have been added to add more strength and depth to the squad. Repeating last season’s success is unlikely. Balancing their domestic and European commitments will be difficult for Hannover, and it’s unlikely that so many big teams will underachieve again this season. However, a decent European run and finish in the upper reaches of mid-table should be attainable for Hannover.

Hannover have a fairly large fan base and a large and modern stadium, there is undoubtedly some potential there. Following last season’s success with another solid season is vital if Kind is going to prove himself wrong and organically grow Hannover into regular challengers for European places.

The wonderful thing about the Bundesliga is its unpredictability. You just never know what is going to happen. Witness the remarkable rises of Mainz, Hannover or Nürnberg last season, while teams expected to challenge at the top of the table – Stuttgart, Werder Bremen and Wolfsburg – spent much of the season desperately fighting against relegation.

Or I could point you in the direction of champions Dortmund. Dortmund’s title victory was not shocking, but it was surprising. Dortmund finished fifth the year before and had developed a good group of players. Some labelled Dortmund as potential dark horses, but few really expected them to be crowned champions. But they were. Dortmund played at a tempo other teams simply could not handle. Dortmund’s pressing was exquisitely executed, which hemmed in the opposition and allowed Dortmund to win the ball deep inside the opposition’s half. Once they got the ball, Dortmund were equally devastating. Kagawa, Götze, Barrios and Großkreutz were excellent, as their swift, incisive passing and movement tore teams to shreds. At the other end, Dortmund’s pressing kept the pressure off of a fantastic defence – marshalled by the superb Mats Hummels. Dortmund only conceded 22 goals all season, coming tantalisingly close to beating Bayern’s record of conceding only 21 goals in a Bundesliga season, set in 2007/08.

The question now is how will they do next season? History doesn’t seem to be on their side. The last two surprise champions – Stuttgart in 06/07 and Wolfsburg in 08/09 – both struggled domestically and in Europe the following season. Of course, there were specific reasons why both Wolfsburg and Stuttgart failed to reproduce their title winning form the following season, and that doesn’t mean that Dortmund can’t. It still, however, begs the question: can Dortmund emulate last season’s wonderful form?

The fear was that this great young team would be broken up, as big sides from across the continent waited like vultures to pick apart a beautifully assembled side. Thankfully, that fear has not been realised, with one major exception. Nuri Sahin. Sahin, along with Hummels, was Dortmund’s best player. Alongside his faithful deputy Sven Bender, Sahin broke up the play and intelligently used the ball. He linked up everything and kept Dortmund’s play ticking over. His vision is excellent and his range of passing even better. He also chipped in with some absolutely vital goals, such as a last minute effort against Köln. Six goals and 8 assists in 30 games speak volumes about his importance. In short, he’s brilliant.

Unfortunately for Dortmund, Sahin had a release fee, valid only for this summer, written into his contract. Real Madrid met that fee, and it was never likely that Sahin would turn them down. However, Dortmund have replaced Sahin about as well as they could. Ilkay Gündo?an has been signed for a bargain price of only €4 million. At only 20, Gündo?an should improve massively over the next few seasons, and he undoubtedly has big potential. He’s technically excellent and is a great passer, but there are still doubts that he’s ready to provide the same consistent quality that Sahin did last season.

In addition, the Croatian international Ivan Perisic has also been added to the squad. With 22 goals and the Belgian player of the year award to his name last season, Perisic, on paper, should provide a new and exciting option in attacking midfield.

Another classic pitfall for Bundesliga teams is the ability to balance European and domestic commitments. Dortmund do not have that experience. Last season, Dortmund could not transfer their domestic form to the Europa League, and Dortmund, slightly unluckily, went out at the group stages, albeit in a tough group. Next season, the demands will be even greater and Dortmund need to learn to produce top form midweek without sacrificing their domestic challenge. As almost certain fourth seeds, Dortmund are likely to find themselves in a tough Champions League group. Even considering that, Dortmund have to aim for at least the last 16, while also striving to retain their title, so manager Jürgen Klopp faces a very difficult balancing act.

It should be noted that Dortmund were not a flash in the pan who took advantage of other teams’ (Bayern’s) weakness to win the league. They amassed a very high points total by recent standards and are a genuinely very good team. They are unlikely to be ‘found out’ next season. They still have the best defence in the league by miles, which will see Dortmund have, at the very least, a solid season. In addition, the guile, craft and hard work or last year’s forwards remains, perhaps even bolstered by the return of Kagawa and the addition of Perisic. It seems likely that Dortmund will be fighting it out at the top of the, but it’ll be very difficult to emulate the Dortmund team of the mid-90s which won back to back titles, before winning the Champions League in 1997.

Bayern’s anti-cyclical transfer policy is being brought to bear. With Neuer, Rafinha and Usami already added, and more additions probably on the way, Bayern look very likely to win the title. The real goal for Dortmund has to be Champions League qualification. Without Champions League football, Dortmund simply won’t be able to keep this team together. Champions League qualification will be easier next season, as, for the first time in a decade, the top 4 Bundesliga teams qualify. A lot rests on Gündo?an being able to replace Sahin, but Dortmund should have enough quality to compete in Europe, while ensuring a top 4 finish.

But, of course, the wonderful thing about the Bundesliga is that it’s wonderfully unpredictable.